e’ve made it through 15 weeks of regular season games and the playoff picture is molding into shape. Over in the NFC we have a pretty good idea who five of the six teams advancing will be, and given the lowly nature of the NFC East it’s hard to get excited about the sixth.
In the AFC, though, the situation is different. Not only are all the top seeds still jockeying for byes and home field advantage, but the Wild Card race is as competitive as it’s ever been. Sure, there have been years when more teams have been battling for the conference’s final two playoff spots. But it’s been a while since an 11-5 team was left out of postseason play (the 2008 Patriots) and it’s something that’s only happened twice.
And yet, here we are, with the 10-4 Broncos, and 9-5 Chiefs, Steelers and Jets, all fighting for three possible spots. When the playoffs start, one of them will be left out in the cold.
Denver Broncos (10-4)
Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, vs. Chargers
Current playoff seed: No. 3 (AFC West Division Leader)
Outlook: The pendulum can go both ways for the Broncos. They still have an outside chance at the No. 1 seed, or they could miss out on the playoffs entirely.
Let’s start with the (annoyingly complicated) AFC West scenarios. Denver and Kansas City split their season series and the Chiefs have a better divisional record, but the Broncos are a game ahead. A Denver win over the next two weeks coupled with a Chiefs loss or tie, or a Denver tie coupled with a Chiefs loss, would deliver the division to the Broncos.
But if they were to fall behind Kansas City, they’d need some help — specifically, a Jets or Steelers loss. If the Chiefs, Jets and Steelers all win their remaining two games and Denver drops one — a strong possibility considering the tough Monday night matchup in Cincinnati — then the Broncos will be sent home early due to tiebreakers.
Bold Prediction: Denver loses Monday night to the Bengals, but then, with Peyton Manning back under center, knocks off San Diego in Week 17. The Broncos make the playoffs as a Wild Card team but go down in the first round.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Raiders
Current playoff seed: No. 5 (Wild Card)
Outlook: The Chiefs have vaulted themselves back into contention with an impressive eight-game winning streak and now they’re in the best position of these four teams. Kansas City is in control of its future. If it wins its next two games, it’s in. If either the Jets or Steelers lose once over the next two weeks, the Chiefs are also in.
Even better: if the Chiefs win out and the Broncos drop just one of their remaining two games, Andy Reid’s crew will be crowned division champs, thanks to a superior record against AFC West teams.
And there’s no reason to think Kansas City won’t finish the season 11-5 given how Alex Smith has finally discovered that occasionally throwing the ball down the field to wide receivers can be helpful. More impressive is that he’s managed to alter his approach without sacrificing ball security. He’s thrown 16 touchdowns this season compared to just four picks, while completing 66 percent of his passes and averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. He’s the reason the Chiefs have the league’s sixth-best offense, according to Football Outsiders. Combine his efficiency with a stout defense and you have a team that seems destined for the playoffs, and could possibly go on a playoff run.
Bold Prediction: The Chiefs win their final two games, capture the division title and become a team no one wants to face in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
Remaining schedule: @ Ravens, @ Browns
Current playoff seed: No. 6 (Wild Card)
Outlook: The Steelers just might be the AFC’s best team — they’re certainly the scariest. The offense, with Ben Roethlisberger sitting back and launching bombs to the explosive trifecta of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton, has become unstoppable. Pittsburgh has scored 30 or more points in each of its last six games and its offense is ranked No. 1 in the league, according to Football Outsiders. It’s unlikely the Ravens or Browns figure out ways to slow down that attack. All the Steelers need to advance is to win both of their upcoming games, or for the Jets to lose once over the next two weeks.
Bold Prediction: They’re 3-3 on the road, but the Steelers should have no problem knocking off the hapless Ravens and Browns over the next two weeks. That would leave them at 11-5, and earn them one of the AFC’s two Wild Card spots. In 2005, an 11-5 Pittsburgh team reeled off four straight postseason wins, including a victory over the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Steelers followed a similar path this year.
New York Jets (9-5)
Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, @ Bills
Current playoff seed: No. 7
Outlook: The Jets have won four in a row, and yet they find themselves with the cards stacked against them. For one, they have, by far, the toughest remaining schedule of any team on this list. It’s not just the game against the Patriots, but Todd Bowles‘ crew also has to travel to Buffalo to face the Bills and Rex Ryan, who will be foaming at the mouth as he dreams about keeping his former team out of the playoffs. Splitting these final two games would be an accomplishment. It also would likely send the Jets home.
Bold Prediction: Gang Green loses to New England but knocks off the Bills. Bowles misses out on the playoffs in his first year as a head coach despite a double-digit win total.
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Washington Redskins’ DeSean Jackson reacts as he walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Saturday, Dec. 26, 2015, in Philadelphia. Washington won 38-24. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
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